Political Crisis in Malaysia – Fall of the Perak state government

|| This is a courtesy post for the benefit of non-Malaysian readers, Malaysian readers should excuse the pedantic background details ||

It has been one heady day in Malaysian politics. The state of Perak, won by the Parliamentary opposition in the general elections last March, appears to have effectively fallen into control of the Barisan Nasional (BN, National Front) who control the federal government – although we shall have to wait until later today to be sure, more below. This state of affairs has been brought about by the defections of four lawmakers who have now granted the slim majority of three seats in the state assembly to the BN.

This breaks the momentum gathered by the opposition alliance Pakatan Rakyat (PR, People’s Alliance) who, while narrowly failing to capture the federal government, delivered the greatest electoral blow to the ruling BN in many decades. Previously in Malaysia’s political history no more than two states have fallen under the control of the Parliamentary opposition. In the March 2008 general elections five out of eleven states in Peninsular Malaysia fell under PR’s control. These included, for the first time, the economic powerhouses of Selangor, Penang, and Perak.

In actual fact, BN won only 47.5% of the popular vote in the Peninsula, but the votes pledged to its coalition members in the East Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak allowed BN to retain control of the federal government.

The PR majority in the Perak assembly was slim, just three seats, and thus highly vulnerable to defections. Until this week, the popular perception was that if defections were to happen it would be from the BN to PR as a creeping endorsement of the shift in voter sentiment in the general elections. It was surmised that prior to the emergence of the surprising results of March ’08 few would have dared break ranks from the BN for fear of reprisals or exile into the political wilderness.

Live by defection, die by defection

PR’s de facto leader, Anwar Ibrahim, former Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia and celebrity political prisoner, had even announced a grandiose plan last year claiming that he had secured the promises of 30 defectors within the BN’s ranks who were prepared to hop over to PR by September 16, 2008 and enable them to form a new federal government.

This plan generated great expectations amongst supporters of the opposition and supporters of change in Malaysian politics, where the BN has enjoyed unbroken rule since independence in 1957 but has in recent decades been alienating voters by promoting racial polarisation, corruption, abuse of power, religious tension, and fear-mongering.

Come September 16 the defections failed to happen. Either they were never solid, or Anwar’s publicity had galvanised the BN into effectively tightening ranks. But Anwar had introduced party-hopping back into Malaysian politics and had many people rooting for him. A few voiced objections that this was an undemocratic method that devalued the electoral choices of voters, who may vote for a party or coalition, and not necessarily an individual politician.

Now, with the defections of his erstwhile comrades in Perak, Anwar’s political weapon of choice has come back to haunt him and his allies. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

Ironically, last Sunday, PR appeared to have scored a coup in Perak when it was announced that a BN assemblyperson, and old friend of Anwar had decide to defect to PR, thus raising their majority from three to five. Within the ensuing week word spread that both threats and enticements were cast his way by the BN. Subsequently, today he declared that he was one of the four rejoining BN.

A renewed BN?

This victory, as of now, must come as an immense boost to the morale of the BN, which has been flagging since last year’s general elections. Although the BN retained national control they lost their two thirds majority in Parliament which has long been raised as evidence of their electoral mandate to do as they politically pleased. Two major pillars of the coalition, the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) and the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), were largely wiped out at the polls, leaving the third member of their inter-ethnic alliance, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), as the principal party of a coalition that was supposed to exemplify inter-ethnic harmony and cooperation.

The BN took a further hit in the August by-election at Permatang Pauh, which allowed Anwar Ibrahim to return to Parliament. He was not eligible to contest in elections until April ’08 due to a standard 5-year ban from office following a corruption conviction against him, which occured as part of former premier Mahathir Mohamed’s plan to prevent Anwar from succeeding him as prime minister.

While the defections of September 16 failed to materialise PR scored another win in last Saturday’s by-election in Kuala Terengganu, capital of a state lost by the opposition Islamist Party (PAS) to the BN last year. The defection by the Bota assemblyman from Perak the next day seemed to suggest that there was no stopping the juggernaut of change. Until yesterday.

With Perak likely to fall people are now speculating which states will be targeted next by the BN. The northern state of Kedah has a 21 PR reps against 14 BN, meaning only four have to defect to tip the balance. Selangor, where I live, will be harder, as it requires 9 defections. However, the state of Negri Sembilan, currently under BN control, operates with a three-seat majority.

Suspect tactics

Rumours have been rife that huge sums of money have been promised by the BN to defecting politicians. One Perak assemblyperson, who has not defected, issued a statutory declaration several days ago relating how he was taken to a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak, now the prime minister-apparent, just seven days after the general elections and promised RM 50 million (US$ 13.8 million) if he would help garner defections for the BN.

Two of the assemblymen who have defected have been under investigation in a sex-for-bribes scandal and there is speculation as to whether their corruption charges will be dropped after joining the BN. Even former premier Mahathir has criticised taking in such tainted politicians.  It does little to alter perceptions that the BN fosters corrupt governance and a lack of accountability.

The defectors also all were mysteriously incommunicado for over 24 hours prior to their declaration, leading their parties to file missing person’s reports with the police and one’s wife even called up the chief minister with the fear that her husband had been kidnapped. One UMNO elder has even declared:

“The mysterious disappearances, sudden reversals, and weak explanations, show ample signs of illegal inducement.

“No matter what the truth of the matter, let us not fool ourselves. People will not believe that these crossovers were honest. This mistrust will taint any government formed on the back of these crossovers.”

Commentators and readers in the Malaysian blogosphere, which is largely anti-BN, are incensed. Najib’s actions will probably endear him to his followers and UMNO but its possible his already low approval rating amongst the Malaysian public will drop. Only 41 per cent of people surveyed in a recent poll believe that Najib will make a good prime minister.

The chief minister of Perak, in an attempt to resolve the crisis, has attempted to dissolve the state assembly and call for fresh elections. Constitutionally, he needs the approval of the Sultan of Perak in order to do so. We are now waiting for the Sultan’s decision later today, which will probably happen after he meets with Najib. People in the loop are not optimistic. Fresh elections would probably grant a clearer majority to PR as well as respect the electorate’s choice. A clearer majority for any government would allow administration some necessary stability, a one-vote majority begs for further defection-based brinksmanship.

PR is planning a massive rally in the evening outside the chief minister’s residence in a show of support. They hope 50,000 can come.

The Perak crisis, I feel, is just the start (or continuation) of more upheavals to come in Malaysian politics. The years 2008-9 will probably be remembered as the longest election we’ve had. Let’s see what the day brings.